10% winrate pauper vs modern

by wickeddarkman on 04 August 2022

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Deck Description

I'm halfway through the mutation phase by having played game 25, and that means I can run a rough estimate of the winrate.

It's actually at 20% but I subtract 10% to compensate for the "wish advantage" that blank cards bring by being anything I want them to be.

First, the decks that simply just beats me:
No matter what I did or drew, I got flattened. These decks are the future goal line for the two halfdecks involved in those games.

Bant knightfall
Bloodbraid jund
Devotion black
Dungrove aggro
Eldrazi bloodbraid
Eldrazi tron
Flayer junk
Gw (×) vizier
Hollow vine
Merfolk

Second, the decks that I blooded. Against these I scored one win out of 3, so somehow I'm having results against those that I can look into and analyse how and why they got a defeat.

Humans
Affinity
Elves
Spirit taxes
Kiki-chord
Death & taxes
Neon dredge
Ponza
Hollow one
Shadow grixis

The list of defeat. These are the decks against which I won 2 out if 3 games against.
They can also be analysed to look at exactly why I defeated them.

Bant eldrazi
Eldrazi taxes
Grixis shadow
Living end
Selesnya taxes

The next 25 testdecks will recieve the same attention that you've seen so far
Since the project is evolution based, that means it will take time to complete, and this is basically generation one within this specific setup.

I'm pleased at both new and old methods having merged to produce the current results, and I'm also pleased to highlight that "halfdeck dominance" is an interesting enough aspect that my curiosity is on the move.

Exactly what parts of the halfdecks make them take the lead ?

The answer seems to be complicated.

When I played with the "strike & classcombo" couple, the lifegain fliers took the lead, then followed by other evasives and then first strikers. The more combo like deck took the backseat and aided to the aggression when possible, but mostly took on a defence role. In some games it performed it's combo, and oddly, when matched against other combo it became the dominant part.

Pretty much the same thing is happening with the "counterlings & regenerate" couple. The blue part often opens up with faerie seer which brings a lot of speed to the board developement. The green half become the defensive option.

The interesting thing here is that the cards overall just follow their nature. If I added equal amounts of aggression to each half as well as defensive cards, I'm pretty sure that each half would become equally dominant.

As soon as you start to ignore aggro as the defining factor, you discover that dominance then shifts towards technology. The best hatecards in the halves step forward into the light based on matchups. In some matchups halfdeck one will take on the dominant role, and in other matchups the other halfdeck become more dominant.

So dominance is defined by what your opponent plays. If a card for example only hates the graveyard, and nothing but the graveyard, then it only becomes dominant when facing graveyard decks.

So, the more flexible a card is, the better it actually becomes.

Take caustic Caterpillar for example. Against decks with many artifacts, it takes on a huge role, but against other matches it's small and insignificant. But this small and insignificant thing often means that the opponent will take out the Caterpillar as the last threat, which means that it manages to bring some pain by default. In some games, where the opponent knows you got many other creatures than the Caterpillar, they can make mistakes in how long they should let themselves be hit by the Caterpillar in order to take out something big.

Sometimes the synergy within two halfdecks will make some cards much more powerfull, and so dominance depends on synergy as well.

Imagine if caustic Caterpillar joined forces with unearth against an artifact deck.
The fact that caustic Caterpillar is a creature let's it synergize with cards affecting creatures.

People have been laughing at caustic Caterpillar, but they get quite serious when they see it having synergy.

In some games I've played caustic Caterpillar, the opponent took a look, thought "no threat" and decided to build up board presence. Then next turn I play rancor, and they regret that they could have bolted it, making me loose rancor if they'd perceived it as a threat instead of laughing at it.
So to sum up, cards that have more than one use, cards that changes nature against certain decks and cards with a high synergy brings dominance to a deck. Caterpillar has more than one use, it can attack, it can block, become enchanted, and sometimes it can take out artifacts or enchantments. But I think it's most important feature is actually that when it faces artifact decks its seen as a threat to the board state, but other decks will view it as a laughable irritant. It's a highly dominant card.

COMBO-COUNTRY:
so in about 6 decks time, I will hit goryo reanimate which Mark's the transition into combo-country, and boy have I been longing to get to that point.
The whole idea of the halfdeck "counterlings" was to have a halfdeck that would be good against combo, so I expect to get a much better winrate against the next 25 testdecks. Strangely mutations also increase in aggression against these decks as I try to take them out as quickly as I can. A certain portion of cards also focus on taking out artifacts as combo is often relying on a few of those. Removal often scores very little points against combo as not all of them are creature based.

Oh, yeah, and could someone fix goblin combo ?
All the decks feature the new shaman, but someone forgot that it isn't the combo. It's what you search for the combo with.

Keep up slips like that and thousands of players will suddenly see the hoax.


How to Play

It would be no secret to regulars on mtgvault that I constantly play-test against 64 modern format decks mainly from the year 2018 perhaps with some cards from 2019, but I'm not sure about that.

All of them are proxies and was chosen from among the top 8 of that time with most participants as I had the idea that the more battles a deck had been through at a tournament, the more reliable it was. A few of them had only seen few tournaments so I based those on an average build.

The above deck is from that collection, and I'm slowly adding the others under the decktag: wdm 2018

WHY DO I STILL PLAY AGAINST MY TESTDECKS FROM 2018 ?

The reasons for that seem to be growing the more that time marches on so let's get through the list...

1: I grew up as a generation 64, and in my days gaining data points on the world was the thing to do. Later generations have grown up seeing big data as a trap, and so, their world is about seeding misinformation. As a result, many tournaments reported to wotc are actually fake, which is a way to hijack the information flow and corrupt it. So I basically do not trust tournament results unless they contain some pretty big names within them. This means I've begun to use these decks from the past as a failsafe. If a deck I build can run a gauntlet through these, I feel it's solid enough to use in formats where knowledge is getting ever harder to extract.

2: I've grown nostalgic about the decks. They are from a time where the game was more pure, theft was less present and besides a pro friend of mine being both a Danish and Swedish champion couldn't crack the format back then, so it's become a challenge for me to do so.

3: having past cards constantly on my mind enables me to discuss them in context compared to other new cards. When I see problematic cards in the current meta, my memory on what cards can potentially deal with them stretches further back than everyone elses memory, except a few geniuses, and that will give me an advantage in deckbuilding.

4: by using old tech to beat new tech, I have the rogue advantage of knowing the current meta and having learned about interactions between old and new cards.
The average player will be at a complete loss at how my deck works, and how they can interact with it, while I got it all nailed down.

5: most people frown at the idea of using the old decks. They assume that the current decks have only grown stronger, while the old decks are obsolete because they were weaker. They forget that I'm playing with everything from the past, including decks that became so powerful that cards in them got banned, which tamed or killed the majority of those decks. This means that MY meta is much harsher and much more punishing than most of the current meta which constantly gets powered down. It's an ironic illusion to think new decks are the best decks, as the past has an ever growing list of banned designs.

6: occasionally wotc unbans a card from the past. When that happens, I have actual play practice with the card and as such knows how to work around it and what it can do in an array of situations. I'll know if I need to buy it before prices on it explodes, and I'll know if it's worth starting to use it again.

7: prices are lower on all of the forgotten cards, so I will also be able to make some nice deals before the rest of the meta catches on to any of my innovations. By buying extra playsets for cheap, I can mention to anyone who starts taking an interest in the cards that I got extra playsets but only sell them at a high price. People usually panic and buy my extras because I usually buy into the shops entire stock of the card.

COMMONCARDS VS THE 2018 DECKS:
I have a gigantic project running where I use paperstrips as a statistical computersimulation to evolve decks using evolution. The scope of it is simply enormous. Some would say otherworldly, and I use the 2018 meta to "train" evolution at designing the decks. It's all done by hand, and takes up most of my spare time.

To increase the level of craziness I use a type of decks that I invented myself in the past when I was trying to find smarter ways to build decks faster.
All of this is described in a masterpage.
https://www.mtgvault.com/wickeddarkman/decks/half-deck-master-page/

Misinformation and theft aren't the only problems in magic these days.
I try to gather up reading as much reading material as I can on another page.
https://www.mtgvault.com/wickeddarkman/decks/paranoia-zone-frontpage/

Deck at a Glance

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Mana Curve

Mana Symbol Occurrence

0210313

Card Legality

  • Not Legal in Standard
  • Not Legal in Modern
  • Not Legal in Vintage
  • Not Legal in Legacy

Deck discussion for 10% winrate pauper vs modern

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