WARNING: The above deck is from my 2018 collection and is not representative of the data below. It's just that I'm slowly posting my 64 testdecks from 2018
Search for that series through the decktag: wdm 2018
If you want to see my own take on mill decks, use the decktag: wdm Millwinter
MILL DATA YOU WONT LIKE:
For those of you who hate mill, it's win-rate is currently a little above 57% worldwide, which means it's actually performing exceptionally well.
Only five other decktypes are able to best that win-rate
Death&taxes, heliod company, izzet blitz, omnath copycat and temur control.
Out of these decks only one deck can beat mill reliably, and it's death and taxes.
If you play death and taxes I lied to you unintentionally, as you'd probably like the fact that mill will stress your worst competitors. Death&taxes could float on top of an overwhelming wave of mill.
Except, I didn't lie, because there is some bad news for you and the millers out there.
Despite being top 6 in global win rates, mill seems to kill of its own fanbase.
Mill proves to be exceptionally hard to play.
Between 17 Oct to 10 nov, mill exploded from having less than 1% of the meta to having a little more than 5% of the shared meta. From the 10 Nov to now it crawled back to being 0.47% of the meta.
Only an exceptional few players are maintaining the win-rate of about 57% worldwide. It's the 6th best win-rate, but odds are you don't need to adapt against it, because the number of millers capeable of defeating you solidly is very very low.
From the perspective of the master millers, there are 13 decks that utterly defeats you, and they are all belonging to the aggro class.
Eldrazi and taxes
Mono red prowress
Mono white hammer
This is absolutely no surprise to me, as I've been declaring most of the 2020 that mill needs to face aggro foremost, then it can beat everything else by default.
If you are one of these millers who gave up on the deck, it's most likely because you've used lurrus as a companion and have been forced to place ensnaring bridge in the sideboard.
Even with ensnaring bridge mainboard I've demonstrated over and over that ensnaring bridge needs the support of oona's prowler to be able to lock down as early as turn 3 against the most aggressive of the above decks.
I don't like this mill data as well.
Alfred, you are not allowed to say you like this mill data, because you burningly itch to say it.
Wait I allow you to say it, because now you will contradict my p.s.
I can't win this one, can I? Damn you alfred...
MILL FACTS YOU PROBABLY WONT LIKE:
Among the list of the 13 decks that defeats mill, there is only aggro. Aggro is what defeats mill, and you cannot expect to go to a tournament with the hope that you won't meet it. The larger the number of participants is, the more aggressive you can expect it to be. Your deck has to feature a lot more mainboard cards against aggro than my testdeck from 2018. This is especially relevant to the 90% of millers who play lurrus as a companion and can't have ensnaring bridge maindecked.
Is necessary against aggro, but some aggro is so fast that it can just laugh when seing the bridge. Because mill has a fragile manabase, it will often be stuck with too many cards in the hand. Visions of beyond is an exceptionally bad deal when playing ensnaring bridge mainboard, which is another argument why visions of beyond belongs in the sideboard. In some of my own builds I've dealt with the bridge by adding 2 oona's prowler, which allows you to perform a panic lockdown as soon as turn 3. I can also recommend replacing visions of beyond with 4 alternatives covered at the section about visions of beyond.
FIELD OF RUIN:
Before field of ruin, millers used ghost quarters. If the opponent searched, you would get the advantage of milling faster through archive trap. If the opponent didn't search, you would slow them down by taking out a land. No matter what your opponent chose, you would be better of against aggro. This changed when millers started to use field of ruin. First, mill slows itself down to be able to force through an archive trap because of the 2 mana used to activate field of ruin. Because of this change, mill has lost speed against aggro, which in the old days swallowed the bait and searched when hit by ghost quarter, because they can't afford to lose mana and speed against mill. You might consider running ghostquarter in the mainboard and run field of ruin as a sideboard card. Since two of the aggro decks are eldrazi taxes and eldrazi tron, think about wether you want the early ghostquarter to stop eldrazi temple and tronlands or if you prefer an opponent on the play which goes temple temple thought-knot seer or tower, mine, plant 7 cost card. Back in 2018 mill had far better aggro matchups.
GLIMPSE THE UNTHINKABLE:
Mill has traditionally been punished extremely hard by bloodmoon as it's manabase is pretty ruined even without seeing a bloodmoon. I've seen some very successful millers deal with the problem by playing maddening cacophony mainboard and a few glimpses can be pulled in from the sideboard.
MANABASE IN GENERAL:
Millers tend to fill their deck with field of ruin, mystical sanctuary, shelldock isle and other cards trying to be competitive. They usually have 3 islands and 2 swamps as the only basics. Mill is primarily relying on a lot of black cards to deal with their problem matchups, so any deck that can lock down the black side of mill will be exceptionally powerfull. This is the main reason why a majority of the 13 aggro decks on our hate list contains red (bloodmoon and landdestruction) also the death and taxes builds manage to be strong against mill because it's manabase is so fragile.
Before field of ruin started to slow mill down, shelldock isle was facing a lit of pressure against ghostquarters and other hatred against special lands. Shelldock isle also had the effect of slowing down the deck against aggro. Before field of ruin was printed I warned plenty of people to use only one. These days with both ghostquarter and field of ruin in the meta, you will never get to activate your damn dumb isle. Remove it.
Although I've always been a fan of these two cards, I've recently run some deep tests of how these cards perform. There are four scenarios in which they perform well.
1: turn one mill with either tome scour or chancellor of the Spires. (Or archive trap) You target the cards that are the least represented in the graveyard based on knowing that the opponent will be having a total of 4. The odds are in your favor of removing that card from the opponents hand.
2: you play discard and then remove the critical card.
3: your opponents deck is focussed on their graveyard.
4: you can somehow drag out the game for a long time.
Appart from mill designs that use point 1 or 2, these cards are actually better in the sideboard.
VISIONS OF BEYOND:
In the past snapcaster mage was the reason why visions of beyond gained it's popularity. Then relic of progenitus was adopted against snapcaster which was played in many other decktypes. Back in 2018 I warned people of this. These days a lot of decks play escape as a mechanic which prevents visions of beyond to be of use even more. I strongly recommend that you play thought scour or compelling argument, mishra's bauble or relic of progenitus in its place as all four draws a card for you and also brings other advantages, (relic and bauble protects against discard) but I will accept seing visions of beyond in your sideboard.
I have a frontpage.
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(And why not make one yourself)
A small bonus for anyone playing arena.
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To see a variety of my own mill builds.
Search for the decktag: wdm mill winter