jkoay1

17 Decks, 1 Comment, 0 Reputation

In regards to Flameslash. I think a bolts can take out most things with flying anyway. But nonetheless it defenitely is an underated card that i'll have to play test. Eats alot of creatures built around bolts. And even 5 toughness creatures with Keldon Marauders~ Pesky Leatherback Baloths D:

Anyway after going through some rough math. I believe you are correct about the 20 lands.
The rest is just the calculations. Which probably is a pain to read.

Cheers

hmm lets say we run 20. Giving rough estimates it's 33% chance to grab a land first draw. Fluctuating around plus/minus 1% after each subsequent draw ;which i'll count as negligible. Opening hand would hence give 2.33 lands.

What I'm aiming for is 3 lands by turn 3, otherwise i consider it mana deceleration rofl.
Anyway by turn 3, you'd have drawn 8 ,9 or 10 cards. Depending on who starts and also if
getting a Harbinger in your opening hand (47%) and play it. Harbinger will negate the chance of getting a land on your next draw. So it's minus 1 draw count.
Hence 8 cards if you go first and play a harbinger.

It's roughly 25% chance to get 8 or 10 cards
It's 50% chance to get 9 cards.
So on average, you'll have 9 draws that have a 33%chance of getting land by turn 3.
Which averages to 3 lands. Sweet.


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Posted 17 March 2011 at 15:37 in reply to #142711 on Flame Away

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