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"Upset the established order, and everything becomes chaos. I'm an agent of chaos. Oh, and you know the thing about chaos? It's fair." - Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight... Or at least it is until you introduce a certain goblin's lucky thumb into the mix.Despite it being inherently inconsistent, this isn't meant to be a joke deck. You have the tools and sideboard necessary to actually pull off some games against different deck types, and even if you don't, the game will at least be memorable.*Krark the Explorer gives the deck one Lucky Thumb up out of two. Incidentally, his other thumb was already out on the field at the time, improving that rate to 75% Thumbs up.
Karplusan Minotaur can keep the board clear, Young Pyromancer can generate a steady stream of chump blockers or attackers, and Ral Zarek gives you enough time to seal the game with Chance Encounter or burn damage. Krark's Thumb makes all coins you flip 25% more consistent, turning unreliable spells like Mana Clash and Fiery Gambit into semi-reliable, ridiculously undercosted burn. For your sideboard:Against control: Elkin Lair forces both players to use it or lose it for one card every turn, something we don't care about but will be backbreaking to counterspell-heavy control decks.Against combo: Burning Inquiry and Skullscorch can get them to discard their pieces, and Possibility Storm randomizes any spell they play.Against aggro: People forget that the winner of Game of Chaos actually gains life, making it a decent way to bounce back, and Stitch in Time gives you an extra turn to stabilize.A final note on the odds: An easy way to calculate your chances of winning multiple coin flips in a row is .5^x without Krark's Thumb or .75^x with it, where x = the number of flips. For instance, if you want to know the odds of winning a Fiery Gambit with a Krark's Thumb in play: - 1 Flip = .75^1 = 75% success for 3 damage to a creature - 2 Flips = .75^2 = 56% success for 3 damage to a creature and 6 to opponent - 3 Flips = .75^3 = 42% success for 3 damage to a creature, 6 to opponent, and draw 9 cardsAnd that's all. Grab your loaded dice and double-sided coins, call in the Goblin Bookies and Test-Pilots, and get ready to pray to RNGsus, because Izzet's about to get weird.
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Have you considered Squee's Revenge ?I think each win would count toward Chance Encounterweather or not you ended up wining overall and drew cards.
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The problem with Squee's Revenge is that the draw scales much slower than the risk of failing the flip. This causes it to become exponentially worse the more you try to draw. Taken from the Gatherer post on it (they didn't include Krark's Thumb, but still):1 flip = 50% chance of drawing 2 cards, an average of 1 card drawn.2 flips = 25% chance of drawing 4 cards, an average of 1 card drawn.3 flips = 12.5% chance of drawing 6 cards, an average of 0.75 cards drawn.4 flips = 6.25% chance of drawing 8 cards, an average of 0.5 cards drawn.Ultimately, Fiery Gambit, Desperate Ravings, and Burning Inquiry are enough draw for the deck, and there are enough ways to trigger Chance Encounter that we don't need a 1UR spell used purely to gain counters.