This is bad bad statistical math ... you computed essentially nothing. I would like to say you computed drawing exact cards in an exact order, but that isn't right either. Let me help: First off there are 60 cards but also consider that you draw 7 for your opening hand.... then 6 for a mulligan and so on .you need a total of 4 cards so that's 4 chances to draw your winning turn 0, 5 if you allow a freebie mulligan. Also you essentially get 3 free pulls on your first opening hand, 2 free on your mulligan, 1 free on your 2nd mulligan, and none on your 3rd mulligan. So, You have to compute each card drawn individually. So you have 16 total successful cards out of 60 the first time you pull. If you are successful you have 12 out of 59 for the second, if you are unsuccessful you have 16 out 59 meaning: 1 right card for 1 draw: 16/60=4/15 2 right cards for 2 draw: 4/15x12/59=16/295 (successful then successful) 1 right card for 2 draws: 4/15x47/59=188/885 (successful then unsuccessful) + 11/15x16/59=176/885 (unsuccessful then successful) = 364/885 (total) Keep in mind you need 4 correct cards out of 7 draws.=:o I'm not even going to compute this all the way down, but man your initial numbers are way off. I recommend you take a statistics or advanced math class for more detailed descriptions. There's probably an easier way to do this using derivatives and/or integrals but its been years since I have taken any form of calculus or linear algebra.
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I like this deck, not for its mechanic or anything like that, its just that it would be epic to put up against my deck. I can almost see someone from WotC writing a book about the battle between our decks. http://www.mtgvault.com/ViewDeck.aspx?DeckID=16472 Nichol Bolas for the win.
My favorite part about this deck is the ability to play Nicol Bolas on turn 3 if you draw well enough. His +3 ability being destroy target non-creature permanent.... Lands and Planeswalkers are non creature permanents.
whoops... sorry bout that, changed it. must have been thinking about my next deck.
Gaddock teeg actually cripples your deck, get rid of him. Knotvine mystic is ok, but by the time you can get it out you have better options. Birds of paradise is a better return (costs one green, can be played on turn one). I would focus this deck more around Mayael's Aria if you are going to use it at all. Focus more one beefing up your creatures... A lot of your cards seem to suggest that you want to go into melee., My suggestion would be to find a way to have your cards build on one another. All in all it needs some fine tuning. maybe a chaos hydra. Probably a couple reflecting pools or shock lands instead of the jungle shrine. And given that you don't have a lot of draw card abilities the reliquary tower seems a bit un needed.
Sputler