The ever important turn 3
Probably the most important decision with this deck is deciding when to lose tempo and play ascendancy. Because this list no longer runs seeker, ascendancy is slightly less of an important T3 play because there isn't a prowess trigger to hit. This is an example good linear progression, however this is not to say that the deck is linear, because they deck can win in many ways:
1) nothing -> 2) soulfire grand master -> 3) ascendency, attack with soulfire (4 pt. swing) -> 4) stoke (8 pt swing), attack with soulfire (6 pt swing).
The only T1 play main board is to wild slash, which is not a priority unless going against red aggro. An aggressive T2 play is soulfire, which followed by T3 ascendancy allows a T4 noncreature spell to make both of ascendancy's triggers relevant. If soulfire grand-master is still on the board then a stoke the flames on T4 would equate to up to a 18 life point swing, which probably makes up for the tempo loss of playing ascendancy (essentially wasting T3).
If you are on the play, 95/100 times, play rabblemaster on T3 over every other 3 drop in the deck. Rabblemaster is still in my opinion, the best card in standard. At worst you trade 1-for-1. At best you win the game. It is a risk worth taking.
Fetch lands. End of turn or beginning of turn?
If I have Flooded strand and a mountain, generally I'll wait to draw a card. If its an island, i'll fetch for plains and vice-versa, most of the time disregarding pain lands. I want to be able to play my spells without using painlands as early in the game as I can. Pay 1 life to fetch so that you don't have to keep taking damage from a pain land might win you the game. If you've got 4 lands in hand, fetch at end of turn to lower the chance of drawing another land (however slim it may be). This also gives you a chance to shuffle if you suspect a clump.
Resolving Mulligans
In this deck, because its not aggro a no land hand isn't keep-able. An all land hand really isn't keep-able either, even against control because it's standard and there isn't a pox deck or anything like that that makes early game entirely irrelevant. So here's the questions I ask myself:
1.) Do I have all my colors, or at least the colors needed to play the cards in my hand? Do I have a scry land that can help me get them? If I draw 1 more land, can I play the majority 4+ of the cards in my hand?
2.) Do I have a T3 play? Is it a rabblemaster? Is it two rabblemasters?
3.) Do I have a T2 play that the opponent is unlikely to respond to?
4.) Am I not immediately dependent on pain lands?
5.) If I ignore this 1 card in my hand, would it be a keepable 6?
The Mirror Match
I'll think about this and add to it tomorrow. Generally whoever wins is whoever gets rabblemaster/ascendency/treasure cruise out first without the other responding with burn/erase/counter respectively.
Ill go through the card choices. Typing all this out helped me a lot.
MAINDECK
Rabblemaster / Monastery Mentor
Unanswered = free wins. Rabblemaster draws removal that would otherwise be spent on soul fire. In a vacuum scales from 1, to 6, to 8 damage (15 damage from turns 3-5). With Hordeling outburst he scales even greater. Compared to Monastery Mentor it makes RED tokens for FREE, and having red creatures is important since it allows stoke the flames to be cast earlier/for no mana with ascendancy out. Monastery mentor is too slow. I'd probably only play mentor over rabblemaster on the draw against monored aggo since it provides blockers. Generally sided out on the draw. Mentor can come in on the draw/vs. aggo.
Soulfire Grand Master / Seeker of the Way
The keyworded lifegain allows you to trade more profitably, exchange attacks more profitably as compared to seeker, though opponents are morelikely to block soulfire (which is why for now, Chandra is MB). The static ability allows the painlands to not hurt so much and the amount of lifegain, I think may be enough to warrant not playing Jeskai charms (but 2x of those is probably the first thing i'm gonna look to put back in the list). The buyback really helps with negate, erase, d. stroke, wild slash + stoke (when ascendancy is out). Having 2 out and double blocking a 1/1 is pretty sweet too.
Brimaz, King of Oreskos / Raise the Alarm
For now, I'm dropping raise the alarms for Brimaz. Raise the alarms are only good end of opponents turn 2 on the play when I haven't cast grandmaster/they haven't done anything that needs to be countered/responded to. If ascendancy is up, i'd rather have burn or a hordeling outburst. This may prove to be an unwise choice because it gives white decks a target for their valorous stance(s), but brimaz escapes death frenzy, bile blight, drown in sorrows, lightning strike, and anger. Brimaz is still better than Monastery Mentor because in a game of mana flood or screw, I can generate tokens by attacking rather than having to waste spells (or just not be able to make tokens at all). Raise the alarm is sided out against midrange/control because 2 tokens isn't enough to do anything. I need to play more with Brimaz to understand where his match ups are good, but lately I've been sick of seeing Raise the alarm.
Lightning strike
Hits Deathdealer, pre-monstrous lion, rabblemasters, prowessed Seekers/Mentors/Swiftspears, soulfires. Gets sided out vs. midrange. because the 3 damage doesn't cut it with all the T4/T5 critters. Burn is still burn, which is something to consider.
Stoke the Flames
Pretty much the reason to play ascendancy (which lets you cast this for free, essentially). Only get sided out against hyper-aggro decks for faster options.
Valorous Stance
A way to deal with Taisigur and siege rhino, since everyone is so hip on those cards. Against control, it can force a pearl lake ancient back to hand, which can be enough tempo gain to win before an ugin cast. Lets a creature survive crux of fate/anger/end hostilities. Not sure if 2 is the right number. I may go back to 1, but it's a good response to a T3 siege rhino, so who knows!
Wild Slash / Magma Spray
The 1 mana cost of this lets this become a 5 mana stoke with soulfire out. Ascendency triggers twice before resolution making the second casting unpreventable damage (if it resolves of course). If bloodsoaked champions/ the new phoenixes/morphs/manifests become a problem I might switch to magma spray, but the option to deal damage to players makes this better in board stalls vs. aggro. Usually sided out vs. midrange.
Chandra / Outpost Siege
First ability is used to deal DoT in a stagnant game, or to make something annoying not be able to block so that Soulfire, rabble, or brimaz can get in. Second ability provides card advantage. I guess i could ult hoping to get a treasure cruise or a stoke. If the amount of tokens I'm able to make magically increases with these recent changes, then I'll try switching chandra to outpost siege. Unlike chandra, having multiples isn't bad. Khans is the same as chandra and dragons protects me from board wipes and makes trades more profitable. Hordeling outbursts automatically deal 3, so on so forth. Both are noncreature spells on the stack, purphoros isn't which is why he's kinda icky. Can be sided out for faster options.
Hordeling Outburst
1 card that gives 3 power over 3 tokens that are red goblins that's a noncreature spell on the stack. Nuff said. 1-2 can be sided out against a deck that runs 4+ copies of any mix of bile blight/death frenzy/drown in sorrows/doomwake giant.
Treasure Cruise / Dig through Time
Quantity over quality works if the board is set up (i.e. overcommited, which is sort of what the old list wanted to play towards) so I play TC over Digs. However as my understanding of the deck/meta has grown and which cards are just bombs I've been contemplating a 3-1 TC/Dig split, or possibly 4-1, or 3-2 so I can dig instead of fish/loot endlessly.
LANDS
Set up so that there's a good split of tap lands and untap lands to enable T3 plays. The deck functions best at 4 and 6 mana. 4 Mana is when stokes can be cast without creatures and two 2 mana spells can be cast the same turn; and 6 is when 2 mana spells can be bought back/treasure cruise can be cast with 2 cards in graveyard (not difficult to achieve). There is significantly more (U) in the lands than the main board would necessitate, but the sideboard demands having (1)(U) open turns 2 onwards if counter magic is sided in.
SIDEBOARD
I used to run hushwing griffs, but I find that they can be removed to easily and don't actually deal with the problem. Instead of stopping the siege rhino trigger, i'd rather counter the rhino, or destroy/exile/tap it indefinitely. I have multiples of enchantments so rec. sages aren't that big of a set back, and in my opinion do not warrant 2-3 side board slots.
Citadel Siege
I was surprised to see citadel siege make it into the lists of top 16 and top 8 players. The first mode allows my creatures to survive burn removal, scale into midrange (and go over the top), and be incredibly aggressive. It punishes my opponents slow starts (it works really well with the new phoenix). The second mode is usually what I use it for, which basically makes my opponent's best creature not exist. Siege rhino cant attack and is tapped during my combat. In conjuction with chandra, not much can block. If I decide to run a dig, then i'll drop this down to 1 in the SB.
Disdainful Stroke
3-of because I need to be able to draw it more frequently than 2-of, but not 4-of because I need room in my side board for other things.
Erase / Revoke Existence
If that stupid artifact list becomes a thing, i'll switch these to revoke existence (or if UB control becomes more popular) because scuttling doom engines and 10/12 ornithopters need to be dealt with, but for now they remain erases because of the single (W) cost and instant speed. Against abzan these exile coursers. Against RW it exiles banishing light/chained to the rocks. It hits ascendancy and whips, and pretty much everything in BG constellation. Against Heroic it exiles... half of the deck. It pretty much has relevance against every deck.
Negate
2-of because I can't have 4 of these in a format that's so creature heavy/aggressive. Main hold outs for this are whip, board wipes, and planeswalkers.
Wild Slash / Anger of the Gods / Burn Away
1 more to side in against red aggro. Might switch back to an anger of the gods or try Burn Away, which gets through every creature and hoses graveyard/whip decks.
End Hostilities / Anger of the Gods
These are because abzan + mardu midrange just love playing into this. I need a spell that kills wingmate rocs and butchers and dragons, and this is the one that does it. 3x seems to be the right number. If your meta is faster than mine, then anger might be the better option.
Glare of Heresy
The majority of evil things in standard are white. Elspeth, Ajani, Sorin, Brimaz, Wingmate, Butcher, Siege Rhino, Banishing Light, Chained to the Rocks. Things that just ruin my day. Glare of heresy takes care of them. Might go to 1 in order to add a Jeskai charm to the board.
Jeskai Charm
Charm's ability to put a creature on top of deck is a huge tempo swing (lets me get around things like scuttling doom engine's trigger, or possibly makes taisigur uncastable), and giving all my creatures +1/+1 and lifelink has saved me from a death by crater's claws. At worst it burns my opponent for 4, possibly gaining me 4 life. Charm is generally not something I play on T3 because there's tempo loss in playing it. By T3 my oppenent isn't in top deck mode, so mode 1 does not deny recources. Mode 3 requires me to have a decent board presence, usually 3-4 creatures + ascendancy. Holding the mana open to play it on my opponent's T3 might end up in my own wasted T3. So, rather charm is a mid-to-late game play. If soulfire is out and I'm against control, I don't have a problem with T3ing it for 8pt swing, but I have to consider holding it for a T7+ play with buyback.