The problem of BG(x) is Liliana: I play 5 counters (3 remand and 2 izzet charm), and that helps. Jund plays 5-6 discard spell (usually 3 inquisition of kozilek and 2-3 thoughtseize), so they won't be able everytime to protect her AND disrupt our combo. BG the Rock and Deadguy's Ale instead plays a lot more disruption (7 or more discard spells), but their clock is much slower (usually they play less threats), and if they only attack with one threat at the time we can tap it with Mite/Exarch or chumpblock it easily with Sakura.Post-sideboard could be an idea to play Leyline of Sanctity, which protects us also from Slaughter Games (even if against us it's not so strong as against "pure" Twin of Scapeshift).
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As usual I tried only maindeck: Affinity: pre-side it's a race. If you have the twin combo in hand you just can't lose if they don't win on turn 3. If you don't the only way to win is to stall the board (bolt, electrolyze, snapcaster on one of them, pestermite/exarch which taps some threat), until you win with scapeshift/find the splinter twin. Match-up: 60-40.Dead Guy's Ale (BW midrange with pack rat): It's impossible to win with twin (too much removals and even if they are tapped-out they still threaten you with Slaughter Pact), but a topdecked scapeshift is all that's required. The deck is too slow to clock you, and you have some ways to take your time and win. The deck also does himself a lot of damage, so usually you only have to arrive to 7 lands. Liliana is the big threat: if Liliana sticks it's difficult to win, because we don't have many ways to stop her reaching the ultimate. Match-up: 55-45 (a little better than Jund, because Jund has more reach thanks to Lightning Bolt).
As the tests continue I'll update with info on the match-ups :)
Yesterday I tested a lot against Jund maindeck: seems a even match-up. Jund can't do anything against a topdecked Scapeshift, nor he can do anything if doesn't know you're playing the Twin combo, he simply taps out at the third turn and you can go for it. However their discard spells and Liliana are a beating in the early game: we don't have solutions for a resolved Liliana, and once she lands the only way to win is to combo off the turn after, or drop a land each turn, and topdeck a Scapeshift. Anyway the only discard spell which can discard Scapeshift that Jund plays maindeck is Thoughtseize, and usually it's only 2 copies. Also: a Jund player starts it's game at 17-15 life, and that's helpful to combo with Scapeshift as soon as you can.At the end it's a fair game: a bit centered on Liliana, or multiple Goyfs; if you can stop the bleeding from your hand or your life total, and buy enough time to assemble one of your combo, the game should come to its end soon.Post-side the plan is to resolve Scapeshift while playing threats like Batterskull/Keranos/Wurmcoil, which are really difficult to remove for them. However I think that some pieces of the Twin combo should remain, to avoid the risk of getting beaten by a Slaughter Games!
Also: I was thinking about the affinity match-up, and I concluded that maindeck there's no need of a clunky card like Electrolyze, which is brutal in the match-up, but less versatile of, say, Cryptic Command. Maybe I could cut it for a singleton Cryptic...
Baloth is a good sideboard card, but the ~15% of Jund in our meta isn't enough to put him in my side: if Burn and Zoo become more oppressive I could make a thought though.I'd prefer something like Keranos, God of Storms, which I was thinking about: it seems strong against midrange and control strategies, giving you a reliable source of incremental advantage, and difficoult to remove too (Jund can't kill him in any way, it must discard him; control can only counter or bounce and then counter him).I feel like I'm soft to RG Tron as well as Mono-U Tron, but it's more a hunch than an analysis.
I'm trying to play a slightly different version of this deck! I'm glad that someone else had the same insight of me about it, maybe we could share some ideas about it :)I play: +3 Lightning Bolt, +1 Electrolyze, +2 Izzet Charm, +1 Pestermite; -1 Splinter Twin, -3 Explore, -1 Remand, -1 Spellskite, -1 Deceiver Exarch.I prefer to have some more interaction for the affinity and jund match-up maindeck. I enjoyed the versatility of the deck, the different ways to win from nowhere. I noted to have great problems post-sideboard though. Maindeck I often win (the only match-up which I lost maindeck are Mono-U Tron and Jund), but post-sideboard I feel to be always too "light".Last FNM I tried this sideboard, but didn't worked so well against Affinity (4 matches lost post-sideboard! o_O):1 Electrolyze1 Deceiver Exarch1 Splinter Twin1 Batterskull1 Wurmcoil Engine2 Ancient Grudge1 Counterflux1 Negate1 Dispel1 Teferi, Mage of Zhalfir1 Spellskite1 Anger of the Gods1 Vendilion Clique1 Relic of ProgenitusThe more evident flaw of this sideboard are the Splinter Twin and the Deceiver Exarch: never play maindeck cards in sideboard. Bad idea. No green cards in sideboard is also stupid: green is the main color of the deck, while blue (and red) are the splash. I need to confront about it, sideboard games are much more important than maindeck ones.Next tuesday I'll be testing this deck more seriously to bring it at the modern ptq here in Italy. Here Splinter Twin and Jund decks are the majority of the field, so if you have ideas for the sideboard I'll welcome them! :)